Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
I like the Ravens to cover this spread at home in the AFC Championship game. Theirs no doubt these are two of the best teams in the AFC and it will be a great game. I give the edge to the Ravens not only because they are home, but because their offense is more versatile than the Chiefs. The Ravens rank 4th in total points, 4th in rushing TDs, 2nd in RZ attempts and rank 1st in RYPG. The Chiefs defense has been inconsistent in stopping the run game all season. They rank 18th in rushing yards allowed and do not force many TOs ranking 27th in the NFL. The Ravens defense is just as good as their offense - they rank 1st in forced TOs, 3rd in overall TDs allowed and 2nd in points allowed. The biggest difference maker here is going to be the Time of Possession… The Ravens rank 5th in TOP averaging 31:23 per game. The Chiefs rank 14th in this category and keeping it out Mahomes hands is how you win. The Chiefs are 3-4 ATS vs teams allowing less than 21 PPG ; the Ravens are 7-1 ATS when the spread was -5 to -2 and 10-5 ATS as a fav. Home teams are 11-6 ATS the L17 AFC Champ games. Lay the points with the Ravens here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs +6.5 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I like the Bucs to cover this spread on the road against the Lions this afternoon in the final NFC Divisional round game. The Bucs looked great on both sides of the ball last week against the Eagles racking up 32 points and holding the Eagles to just 9 points. The Bucs defense played its best game all season as the Eagles went 0-9 on 3rd down and could not generate much of any offense. The Bucs defense will have their hands full today with this Lions offense, however the Lions are going to have a hard time running the ball against this defense. The Bucs are allowing just 95 RYPG and rank 6th overall in TDs allowed. The Bucs offense under Baker Mayfield has been great, as he has thrown 2+ TDs in 5 of his L6 games and has not turned the ball over in back to back games. The Lions secondary was the weakest link in their WC Game allowing 367 yards, and the Bucs offense is HOT and can do that and much more. The Bucs rank 8th in Passing TDs and are going to be throwing the ball A LOT today against the Lions secondary who ranks 27th in Passing Yards and Passing TDs. The Bucs are 8-1 ATS on the road and the Lions are 2-2 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more. Take the points with Bucs here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
01-15-24 | Steelers +10 v. Bills | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
I like the Steelers here no matter what the circumstances are as I strongly believe 10 points in the playoffs is too much. The Bills enter this game on 5 game win streak, however just one of those wins were by double digits coming against a questionable Cowboys team. The biggest issue I see for the Bills in this is Josh Allen and his turnover frequency, averaging 1.3 Ints per game his L3. His turnovers are extremely costly and they may pay the price from them in this game. Both teams can comfortably play in cold weather with the forecast we are seeing, and I give this edge to the Steelers, giving their tendency to NOT turn the ball over. The Steelers defense ranks 3rd in TDs allowed and 2nd in RZ TDs, which will make it difficult for the Bills on a small field. The Steelers offense is by no means great but their O-Line is solid. They rank 9th in sacks allowed and that is huge for Mason Rudolph allowing him to survey the field and remain composed. The Steelers are 5-3 on the road and the Bills are 6-8 as the favorite. Take the points with the Steelers here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I like the Cowboys to cover this spread at home against the Packers in this NFC Wild Card showdown. Dallas is so dominant at home scoring an average of 37 PPG at home and I don’t think the Packers will be able to keep up if this becomes shootout, which it likely may. GB scored over 37 points just once this season, and it was in week 1 against the Bears. Theirs no doubt the Cowboys can win this one in the air, but they need to diversify their play calling and get the ground game going. The Packers are one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in Rushing Yards allowed per game. The Cowboys defense is ranked 6th in Yard Allowed per Game and 5th in PPG with just 18. The Packers are going to have a difficult time in this one, and the Packers defense will surely not make it any easier on them. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at home this season and the Packers are 4-5 ATS on the road. Lay the points with the Cowboys here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
This game is going to be beyond freezing, and I have to give that edge to the Chiefs in this match up. The Dolphins come into this game pretty banged up on both sides of the ball and that is going to be an issue for them, like we saw last week against Buffalo. The Chiefs are considerably healthy in this match up after resting a bulk of their starters last week, and this will be beneficial today. The Chiefs offense is ranked 7th in RZ attempts and T6 in Pass Att and Completions while the Dolphins defense is not the best ranking 25th in Passing TDs and Rushing TDs - which makes them very vulnerable in this game. Whether the Chiefs try to throw the ball with Mahomes or generate the ground game with Pacheco, the Chiefs are going to have their way with this Dolphins team who saw their home game vanish before their eyes. The Chiefs are 9-7 ATS as a fav this season and the Dolphins are 1-5 as a dog this season. Lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead in this Wild Card game. -Joey Tron | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
I like the Bills to cover this spread on the road against the Dolphins in a game that has huge Playoff Implications on the line for both teams. The Bills are revitalized and look like a brand new team, winning 5 of their L6 games scoring 20+ in each of those wins. The Dolphins are 2-2 their L4 games and were just steam rolled by the Ravens, 56-19. The difference in this game is going to be the Bills pass offense and the Miami secondary - both that are trending in different directions. The Bills offense ranks 3rd in RZ TDs and are 1st in the league on 3rd downs, which is imperative in keeping Josh Allen and the Bills offense on the field. Defensively, the Bills have held their L4 opponents to an average of 17.5 PPG, including the Cowboys and Chiefs. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS against plus .500 teams this season and the Bills are 2-1 ATS when the spread was -4 to -1. Lay the points with the Bills here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | 19-20 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
The Cowboys return home to face Detroit after b2b road games in a pivotal game for Dallas. After falling 2 in a row, they now sit 1 game back of the Eagles in a MUST win game. Detroit just won the NFC North with a road win over the Vikings, and I see a let down spot here after a very sloppy win. The Lions secondary has been inconsistent all season ranking 25th in Passing TDs allowed and 30th in RZ TDs. The Cowboys feast on these types of defenses at home and today should be no different with seeding on the line. The Dallas offense is lethal this season ranking 1st in Passing TDs and 5th in Plays per game, which is huge in covering this number. The Lions defense has allowed 24+ in 5 of their L6 games and the Cowboys offense are a threat to them. Dallas is 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and the Lions are just 1-1 as a dog. Lay the points with the Cowboys here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs -10 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
I like the Chiefs to cover this spread at home against the Raiders in an AFC West show down. The Chiefs offense woke up last week against the Pats with a 27-17 win on the road, and I look for them to have a BIG Christmas game at home with the playoffs looming. The Chiefs offense is averaging 22 PPG and the 9th most yards of offense per game, and they should be able to move the ball comfortably here. The Raiders just scored a MASSIVE 63 points on the Chargers and I look for them to significantly come back down to earth in this one. The Chiefs defense is ranked 4th in passing yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed with 17.5 PPG and the Raiders are possibly without Josh Jacobs. The Chiefs may have struggled as of late, however the Raiders have absolutely nothing to play for in this one, and the 1 seed is very much alive for them. Lay the points with the Chiefs here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears -3.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
I like the Bears to cover this spread at home against the Cardinals in an NFC show down. The Bears have had a second wind this season, winning 3 of their L5 games, and 2 of their L3. These wins are due in part to their defense, who has allowed just 14 PPG across this stretch. The Bears defense is LEGIT ranking Top 3 in Rushing Yards, Rushing Attempts and Rushing TDs, which should significantly slow down the Cardinals rushing threat of James Conner and Kyler Murray. The Cardinals defense has been abysmal and ranks 29th in Passing TDs, 26th in Rushing TDs and 32nd in RZ TDs. The Bears offense has slowly been waking up averaging 22.5 PPG their last 2 games and I look for this momentum to carry over at home behind Justin Fields and DJ Moore. Lay the points with the Bears here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-23-23 | Bengals -2.5 v. Steelers | 11-34 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
I like the Bengals to cover this spread on the road against the Steelers in an AFC North showdown, and a revenge factor for Cincinnati, whose last loss was to the Steelers, at home. The Bengals ride into this match up on a 3 game winning streak, and are led by Jake Browning, who has 5 Passing TDs and 2 Rushing TDs in this span. The Steelers are turning to Mason Rudolph, who has yet to start a game all season and the Steelers offense has had minimal production as of late, scoring no more than 18 points, in their current 3 game skid. The Bengals offense is averaging 21 PPG on the season but are currently averaging 31 in their L3. The Steelers defense has really struggled as of late and are ranked 20th in passing yards and 22nd in passing yards, giving a good opportunity for the Bengals rush offense to open up. The Bengals offense is on a tear right now, and I am not convinced the Steelers and Mason Rudolph can keep up with them. Pittsburgh has covered in 2 of the L3 games H2H, but that changes Saturday afternoon. Lay the points with the Bengals here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -3.5 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
I like the Rams to cover this spread at home in PRIME TIME against the Saints. The Rams enter this game winning 4 of their L5 and the Saints have won 2 of the L5 against sub .500 teams. The Rams offense has been explosive scoring 28+ in all 5 of those games and the Rams offense led by Matthew Stafford, will be a threat to the Saints secondary who has not seen tough competition in back to back games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS their L5 games and the Saints are 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Lay the points with the Rams here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-18-23 | Eagles -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Eagles come into this game off of back to back loses by 20+ and are HUNGRY for a win after that Cowboys loss. The Seahawks have lost 3 in a row, and this is due in part to their defense, whose allowed 28+ in each of those losses. The Eagles offense is their strongest link as they are averaging 26 PPG and 373 yards of offense per game, and are loaded with weapons in AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and D'Andre Swift. The Seahawks secondary sits towards of the bottom of the NFL allowing 243 PYPG and ranks 20th in Passing TDs and 22nd in Passing Yards. This is a crucial game for the Eagles who just finished their gauntlet of games and I look for a big rebound statement here from Jalen Hurts on Prime Time. The Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS as a road favorite this season and the Seahawks are 2-3-1 ATS at home. Lay the points with the Eagles here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I like the Rams to cover this spread at home against the Commanders in an NFC Clash. The Rams have looked great as of late, going 3-1 ATS and SU while the Commanders have struggled immensely, and are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Commanders woes have been on the defensive side, where they have allowed 28+ points in 4 straight games, including 90 combined their L2. The Rams pass offense will be a threat to this Commanders secondary, who ranks 32nd in Passing TDs and 30th in Passing Yards. The Rams defense has buckled down and has allowed 19 or less points in 3 of their L4 games and have a strong enough defense to contain Sam Howell in this one. The Rams are 9-1 ATS in December games over the L3 seasons and have a lot to play for in this one, sitting just outside of the wildcard. Lay the points at home with the Rams in this one. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
I like the Giants to cover this spread at home in PRIME TIME against the Packers in a very important game for the Giants. The Giants have found new life and won b2b games due to good defense and starting in good field position. They allowed just 26 points in those 2 games and forced 8 punts with 9 total take aways. The Packers are hot winning 3 in a row and hunting down the Lions however I see a let down spot for them after that huge home win against the Chiefs. The Packers have been winning close games and I think that luck runs out tonight. The Giants come into this game fresh off the bye, well rested and hungry to keep their season alive. The Giants are 2-0 ATS when the spread is +4.5 to +7.5 this season. Take the points with the Giants here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I like the Cowboys to win this game at home against the Eagles in a VERY PIVOTAL NFC EAST clash. Both the Cowboys and Eagles have been electric all season losing just 5 games total. The Cowboys are well rested coming into this game not playing since Nov 30th and the Eagles are pretty beat up after playing a brutal game against the 49ers, just 7 days ago where they lost 42-19. Dallas has won 4 straight games scoring 40+ in 3 of those 4 games and have arguably the best QB:WR duo in Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles defense has struggled immensely their last 2 games allowing a total 79 points and are now tasked with a road trip against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Eagles won earlier this season 28-23 after being out gained by 114 yards, and I have a hard time seeing the same results, with a short turnaround and road trip. The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 24-12 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points with Dallas here. -Joey Tron | |||||||
12-10-23 | Texans -3 v. Jets | 6-30 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
I like the Texans to cover this spread on the road against the Jets in a pivotal game for Houston, as they are tied for 2nd in the AFC South. The Texans have a really solid offense and are able to move the ball downfield very well. They are averaging 395 yards of offense per game and have the 2nd best pass offense in the NFL with 275P PYPG, being led by CJ Stroud. Stroud has several targets on offense that can shake up this Jets defense. The Jets defense has hit some speed bumps as the season has gone on, ranking 28th in Rush Defense and their secondary has allowed over 220 passing yards in 2 of their L3 games. Whether the Jets start Zach Wilson the entire game or decide to throw in Tim Boyle halfway thru... It does not matter. The Texans defense has allowed 20 or less points in 2 of their L3 games with at least 1 turnover in 5 straight. Neither of those QBs are going to slow down this Texans team. The Texans are 8-1 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points with the Houston Texans here. -Joey Tron |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $529 |
Jim Feist | $502 |
Matt Fargo | $451 |
Rocky Atkinson | $438 |
ProSportsPicks | $435 |
Marc Lawrence | $368 |
Tim Michael | $206 |
Dan Kaiser | $205 |
William Burns | $175 |
Kyle Hunter | $70 |